And the doleful 1914 analogy works at another analytical level. The US resembles 1913 Britain, still the dominant power in the world, even if it is in relative decline as others gain on it. China approximates the Kaiser’s bumptious Germany, determined to secure its place in the sun, and is the global rising power most making the rest of the world nervous. Japan is Third Republic France, in decline and painfully aware of it, even as its hated rival – for the French Germany and for the Japanese the Chinese – gains in power almost by the day. India is even an alright stand-in for Tsarist Russia, powerful, slightly geographically removed from the situation, yet capable of playing a pivotal role. The aptness of the analogy leaves little room for strategic comfort.

Like pre-1914 Wilhelmine Germany, China is on the strategic march, especially throwing its weight around the South China Sea, where more than $5 trillion in trade passes through its waters each year. Beijing ridiculously claims the lion’s share of the waterway for itself, through the use of the nine-dash line that it says validates these excessive claims. The problem is that Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines and Taiwan also have competing claims, and they increasingly chafe at China’s high-handed treatment there, where Beijing is constructing military bases. At last bearing it no longer, the Philippines took Beijing to the international court, with The Hague set to rule on the conflicting welter of claims in the next few days.

Almost certainly The Hague will rule in the Philippines’ favour, and equally certainly China, to the horror of its neighbours, will simply ignore the court’s decision. Then the mask will have well and truly slipped, revealing China’s naked power grab in this most dangerous region in the world.

The South China Sea is a powder keg with disturbing echoes of 1914 | City A.M.

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